[ad_1]
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan might find yourself being one of many greatest winners of the autumn of the Assad regime after grappling with years of instability and isolation on account of the Syrian civil conflict that has raged on his doorstep for 13 years.
Talking on Saturday in Gaziantep, considered one of a string of border cities reworked by the battle and the tens of millions of refugees it created, the Turkish chief declared a “new diplomatic and political actuality in Syria” after greater than a decade of help for Syria’s armed opposition.
It stays unclear to what extent Ankara backed the lightning offensive of the previous two weeks that on Sunday toppled the federal government of Bashar al-Assad. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist group that led the assault, has a sophisticated relationship with Turkey.
However many analysts are satisfied that Erdoğan, who as soon as known as the Syrian president a “butcher”, stands to achieve politically and economically from his newfound place as essentially the most influential international actor within the nation following the autumn of Assad, who was backed by Russia and Iran.
“After the Syrians, it’s Türkiye that’s the greatest winner right here,” stated Ömer Özkizilcik, a senior fellow on the Atlantic Council think-tank. “When everybody else deserted the Syrians, when no different state supported the opposition, Türkiye didn’t quit on them,” he added.
Erdoğan threw his weight behind the wave of Arab uprisings that swept the Center East in 2011, spurred by the hope that it will empower allies of his Islamist-rooted Justice and Growth social gathering (AKP). He caught with them even because the US and different western powers that originally supported the rebellions gave up.
He welcomed greater than 3mn Syrian refugees as “brothers and sisters” and offered arms and coaching for insurgent teams battling the Syrian president.
When hopes for regime change pale as Assad was rescued by Moscow and Tehran, and Turkey confronted rising spillover from the battle, Erdoğan shifted his focus to battling Kurdish-dominated forces, who’re seen by Ankara as terrorists, as they made positive aspects in north-east Syria.
Extra lately, Erdoğan made overtures to Assad, however was rebuffed. “The Damascus regime might by no means comprehend the worth of the hand Turkey prolonged,” the Turkish president lamented on Saturday.
But, even because it reached out to Assad, Turkey continued to help rebels and in addition equipped a lifeline to the HTS-stronghold of Idlib, for years the final remaining opposition-held province. It additionally administered a swath of territory elsewhere in Syria’s north and continued to again a gaggle of rebels working below the title of the Syrian Nationwide Military.
These hyperlinks to opposition teams that, on Sunday, achieved their long-held dream of conquering Damascus, go away Erdoğan higher positioned than every other international chief to capitalise on their anticipated ascent to energy — even when the scenario additionally stays extremely risky and unsure.
One massive hope for Erdoğan is that the autumn of Assad will permit a lot of Turkey’s roughly 3mn Syrian refugees to return. Their continued presence is deeply unpopular even amongst his personal supporters. Turkish inside minister Ali Yerlikaya stated final week, after the insurgent seize of Aleppo, that 1.3mn of the Syrians in Turkey hailed from that metropolis and that many “couldn’t include their pleasure” about going again.
The collapse of the Assad regime might additionally change the steadiness of energy within the advanced relationship between Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin, who’ve backed opposing sides not solely in Syria but in addition in different conflicts together with in Libya. “Turkey is more likely to undertake a extra assertive posture within the area,” stated Wolfango Piccoli, of the consultancy Teneo, in a observe to purchasers, including that it will additionally strengthen Ankara’s standing versus Iran.
Turkey, already battling excessive inflation and recession, would profit from resuming full enterprise and commerce ties alongside the 900km Syrian-Turkish border. Its building sector, which has shut hyperlinks to Erdoğan, might money in on a rebuilding invoice anticipated to run to a whole bunch of billions of {dollars}. “If peace is achieved, it’s a giant alternative,” stated an government at considered one of Turkey’s greatest building corporations.
But, regardless of the potential for Turkey, there’s additionally large uncertainty about what sort of authorities will fill the vacuum created by the Assad regime’s beautiful collapse, and what sort of relationship it can have with its northern neighbour.
Whereas Ankara has by no means managed HTS — which it classifies as a terrorist group — it had leverage when the organisation was holed up in Idlib with Turkey as its predominant path to the surface world. It stays unclear what affect it can retain over the group’s chief Abu Mohammad al-Jolani now that he and his allies have taken the entire nation.
Primary peace and stability are removed from assured, with the chance that additional battle might pressure different refugees to flee in the direction of Turkey. İlhan Üzgel, a senior determine in Turkey’s staunchly secular opposition CHP social gathering, voiced the worry that Erdoğan had “created the situations for the emergence of a brand new Afghanistan” on its border.
With Turkey nonetheless related within the minds of many Syrians with the Ottoman Empire — which hanged nationalist dissidents within the centre of Damascus — it can have to be cautious to not overstep the mark within the coming weeks and months. Jolani has known as for a nationwide dialogue free from international interference.
Ankara might stir resentment if it seeks to impose its will on the brand new authorities, stated Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish analysis programme on the Washington Institute. “The Ottoman legacy shapes the way in which Arabs will see Turkey coming in and turning into the brand new patron,” he stated.
One other massive query is the function that Syria’s Kurds will play in a future authorities, and whether or not they’ll retain a number of the hard-won autonomy they’ve gained within the north-east.
Ankara can be cautious of any negotiations between a brand new authorities in Damascus and Kurdish armed teams. It views the latter as terrorists with shut hyperlinks to its decades-old foe the Kurdistan Staff’ social gathering (PKK). Turkey’s international minister, Hakan Fidan, insisted on Sunday that any teams that had been “an extension of the PKK” couldn’t be a part of talks on the way forward for Syria.
The long run function of the US, which has backed Kurdish forces as a part of its struggle towards Isis and retains about 900 troops in Syria, additionally stays unclear. President-elect Donald Trump stated on Saturday the Syrian battle was “not our struggle”.
Sinem Adar, a fellow on the German Institute for Worldwide Affairs and Safety in Berlin stated that, with occasions shifting so quick and so many features of Syria’s future nonetheless unclear, it was too early to say whether or not Erdoğan would finally emerge triumphant from the occasions of the previous two weeks. “It’s all nonetheless up within the air,” she stated. “I’m not satisfied that Turkey has full management of the scenario.”
Cartography by Steven Bernard
[ad_2]