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After greater than a yr of relentless battle within the Center East, the gorgeous capitulation of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime will go down within the area’s historical past as certainly one of its biggest shocks.
In simply 12 days, rebels marched from the north after which the south to the center of Damascus, capturing the capital and ending the Assads’ greater than 50-year dynastical rule over the nation. In lower than two weeks, they achieved what tens of 1000’s of armed opposition fighters had didn’t do in 13 horrendous years of civil conflict.
Moscow and Tehran, Assad’s essential backers, have been unable, or unwilling to stem the tide, each caught up in their very own conflicts — Russia in Ukraine, Iran and its proxies of their 14-month battle with Israel.
In some ways, the regime’s spectacular fall seems to be one of many inadvertent penalties of Israel’s ferocious retaliations in opposition to its foes since Hamas’s October 7 2023 assault. The next yr has upended all earlier norms within the area, fostering a flamable, unpredictable setting.
Israeli forces have for months been launching air strikes on Syria, killing Iranian and its proxies’ commanders, whereas bombing amenities linked to Iran and Hizbollah, the Lebanese militant motion that additionally supported Assad’s regime through the civil conflict.
However greater than something, the rebels’ lightning offensive underlined the parlous nature of Assad’s damaged, corrupt regime.
Assad, who succeeded his father Hafez al-Assad in 2000, was a brutal despot. He used the cruellest of means to place down his opponents through the civil conflict: chemical weapons, barrel bombs, siege and hunger ways, mass detentions, torture and homicide.
Greater than 12mn folks — half the inhabitants — have been pressured from their properties through the decade of conflict. There are extra 100,000 so-called “disappeared” — individuals who have been taken by the safety forces, their whereabouts nonetheless unknown.
Because the parasitical regime bled the nation dry, even these from his personal minority Alawite group, who had despatched their sons to die in Assad’s conflict in opposition to his personal folks, had develop into demoralised, hopeless after years of deepening financial and social woes.
Assad’s demise can be welcomed by the numerous thousands and thousands who suffered below his rule as he refused to compromise and negotiate a political settlement together with his opponents that would have stabilised the nation and put it on a special trajectory.
However the huge outpouring of jubilation can be tempered by wariness about what comes subsequent.
The offensive was led by probably the most highly effective insurgent drive, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group that may be a former affiliate of al-Qaeda, branded a terrorist organisation by the UN, the US and different states. Its chief Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who publicly acknowledged his want to beat Damascus and now seems the important thing determination maker, as soon as fought with Isis, the jihadist group, and has a $10mn US bounty on his head.
Through the six years since HTS has dominated the north-western province of Idlib by way of a civilian-led authorities, he has sought to rebrand the group as a extra reasonable Islamist motion. Nevertheless it maintained management with an iron grip, and UN businesses have documented abuses.
If 42-year-old Jolani does reach his ambition to rule, that can create conundrums for western powers and worldwide businesses about how they need to have interaction with him and HTS.
However HTS is just one of quite a few opposition teams which might be the remnants of the unique insurrection and took half within the assault. And prior to now, the varied factions have clashed with one another.
Through the newest offensive, there was co-ordination between HTS and Turkish-backed factions that function below the umbrella of the Syrian Nationwide Military, and different teams that encircled Damascus from the south.
The actual take a look at, nevertheless, will come when the factions search to divvy up the spoils of victory — and energy.
Malik al-Abdeh, a Syrian analyst, stated he takes solace from the truth that the insurrection seems to have been clearly co-ordinated between HTS and the varied different teams, describing the assault on the regime as a “managed demolition plan”.
“This sense of euphoria and delight has additionally been tempered by the sense there may be violence — it’s virtually too good to be true,” Abdeh stated. “Nevertheless it’s clear there’s a plan, it’s been very rigorously communicated by HTS and Jolani that there’s a map. This has reassured lots of people.”
Other than the Sunni Muslim insurgent teams, there are Kurdish-led forces — which the US backed within the struggle in opposition to Isis — that management a swath of north-eastern Syria.
Turkey, nevertheless, considers them an extension of Kurdish separatists which have fought the Turkish state for many years.
Turkish troops have for a number of years deployed in northern Syria to push again in opposition to the Kurdish militants and its hyperlinks to the Sunni insurgent teams. This implies Ankara is now arguably probably the most highly effective actor in its neighbour, and can play a pivotal function in what comes subsequent.
Turkey, nevertheless, has a posh, at occasions awkward relationship with HTS, which it has additionally designated a terrorist organisation.
The US, in the meantime, has about 900 troops within the nation to assist the struggle in opposition to Isis.
Along with the chance of intra-rebel clashes, there can be fears that Isis — which as soon as managed giant components of northern and north-eastern Syria — will search to use the chaos and make a comeback.
Minority teams throughout Syria, lengthy one of many area’s most secular nations — an element that served Assad as a member of a minority himself — can be involved about what comes subsequent. The nation has a various inhabitants of tribes, religions and sects.
Through the offensive, Jolani, an urbane pragmatist, reached out to tribes, former opponents and brokered give up agreements whereas ordering the safety of minorities.
Neighbouring nations, together with Israel, Jordan and Lebanon, can even be cautious, as will Gulf states that re-engaged Assad lately and think about Islamist actions as destabilising forces.
It served Syria’s neighbours to see Assad weakened, and Israel has lengthy needed an finish to Iran and Hizbollah’s presence on its northern border. However there can even be concern on the potential prospect of a fragile, hollowed-out state in chaos with Islamist teams on the fore.
When in style uprisings in opposition to authoritarian regimes swept throughout the Center East in 2011, a wave of optimism rippled throughout the area. Nevertheless it was all too temporary.
Syria descended into its devastating civil conflict. In Egypt, the military seized energy in a popularly backed coup two years after veteran president Hosni Mubarak was toppled and is dominated by one of many area’s most autocratic regimes.
In Libya, there was a momentary dalliance with democracy earlier than rival armed factions turned on one another and the north African nation stays fragmented and chaotic.
The problem going through Syria now that Assad has lastly been ousted is whether or not it may well navigate the pitfalls and keep away from the calamities that blighted different nations after the autumn of despots, and begin the daunting technique of rebuilding and reconciling.
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