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Iran had misplaced religion in now-deposed Syrian president Bashar al-Assad earlier than his fall from energy, in keeping with analysts and insiders, and its overseas minister advised him {that a} weakened Tehran may now not ship extra forces to help his regime.
When Iranian overseas minister Abbas Araghchi visited Damascus final week, days after Syria’s second-largest metropolis of Aleppo fell to the rebels, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad claimed that “his retreat from Aleppo was tactical and that he remained in management,” mentioned an insider in Tehran’s authorities.
“Araghchi responded that Iran was now not able to ship forces to help him anyway. However we didn’t count on the collapse to return so shortly or expose such hollowness in his regime. This got here as a shock to us, too.”
Saeed Laylaz, an analyst near the reformist authorities of Masoud Pezeshkian, mentioned: “Assad had change into extra of a legal responsibility than an ally, which suggests his time had run out. Defending him was now not justifiable, even when it marked a significant setback for Iran.
“Persevering with to help him merely didn’t make sense and would have had unaffordable prices.”
Iran’s clout within the area has been severely weakened by Israeli assaults on its personnel and property in Syria and on Hizbollah, its proxy militant group in Lebanon, depleting its means to help the Assad regime.
On the identical time, Iranian officers considered Assad as more and more unreliable, if not outright treacherous, whereas analysts and insiders accused him of failing to forestall Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in his nation.
The insider mentioned there had been long-standing frustration with Assad in Tehran. “For greater than a 12 months, it was clear his time had handed. He had change into an impediment, a legal responsibility — some even known as him a betrayer. His inaction value us dearly, and he aligned himself with regional actors who promised him a future that by no means materialised.”
Some inside Iran’s authorities believed Assad had begun courting Arab states such because the United Arab Emirates, lured by guarantees of postwar reconstruction assist in alternate for distancing himself from Iran, mentioned analysts and politicians.
Within the aftermath of Assad’s fall to insurgents led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni insurgent group, recriminations have mounted inside Tehran’s management. “Individuals inside his regime have been leaking details about the whereabouts of Iranian commanders,” the insider claimed. “Assad turned his again on us after we wanted him most.”
A overseas diplomat mentioned that Iranians and a few Syrian loyalists “appear to have moved in direction of Iraq”. They mentioned that members of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards, who’ve been current in Syria for greater than a decade, have been leaving, together with diplomats and households, “in massive numbers over the previous a number of days”.
The autumn of Assad, whose household dominated for greater than 5 a long time, comes as a devastating blow to Iran’s overseas coverage. For many years, Tehran has anchored its technique on an “axis of resistance” towards the US and Israel, leveraging a community of proxies throughout the area.
Syria was a crucial hyperlink on this chain, serving as a gateway for Iran to produce and fund Hizbollah in Lebanon, Shia militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. That hyperlink has now been severed, after Syrian rebels captured Damascus in what proved to be the ultimate chapter of Assad’s regime.
The pace of the offensive shocked observers, attaining in lower than two weeks what opposition forces had failed to perform in 13 years of devastating battle. Tehran had lengthy derided HTS as “terrorists” aligned with US and Israeli pursuits.
Assad’s two fundamental backers — Russia and Iran — did little to assist him because the endgame approached. Russia has been preoccupied with its battle in Ukraine, and Iran with its battle with Israel that shifted from shadow operations to open confrontation. That battle added to greater than a decade of debilitating US sanctions to badly deplete Iran’s monetary and army sources.
For now, Tehran is taking a cautious strategy, ready to evaluate the intentions of Syria’s new rulers. Iran’s overseas ministry has known as for Syria’s “territorial integrity” to be revered and has signalled a willingness to work with the UN to deal with the disaster.
Restoring affect in Syria and Lebanon might be an immense process for Tehran. In Syria, Israeli air strikes over the previous 12 months killed not less than 19 Iranian commanders and focused services crucial to Tehran’s regional operations. In Lebanon, Hizbollah — its strongest regional proxy — has been arduous hit by Israel’s marketing campaign, which assassinated senior leaders and focused its infrastructure, weaponry and civilian associates forward of a ceasefire agreed final month.
Iran’s International Minister Abbas Araghchi insisted on Sunday that Hizbollah would stay resilient. He advised state TV that the group had adequate weapons to maintain itself “for one or two years” whereas exploring various provide routes.
Tehran is equally involved about potential spillover into Iraq, its western neighbour, the place Shia militias stay a linchpin of its regional coverage.
Asghar Zarei, an analyst near the regime, mentioned that Assad had “misbehaved” because the Hamas-Israel battle in October 2023, with out giving particulars.
“Sadly, all the pieces we constructed over 40 years fell aside in a single day,” he mentioned on state tv. “Rebuilding our place might be extraordinarily tough. We should guarantee this doesn’t occur in Iraq or Yemen. It’s time to tighten our belts elsewhere.”
Some Iranian analysts argue that co-operation with HTS, regardless of the group’s Sunni Islamist orientation, may assist Iran preserve some affect. Ali Motahhari, a former parliamentarian, known as for pragmatic engagement.
“We must always negotiate with HTS,” he mentioned, noting that the militant group, whereas against Shias, additionally shared Iran’s opposition to Israel.
Israel doesn’t count on Iranian affect in its again yard to soften away. “Iran thrives in chaos. To say that Iran is retreating in Syria, or Hizbollah is operating away, is untimely,” mentioned a senior Israeli official. “There are believable eventualities the place we nonetheless must cope with Iran on our Syrian border for an additional decade.”
Hardliners in Iran have pushed for an aggressive response. Ahmad Naderi, a hardline MP, steered that Tehran should concurrently “revive the injured resistance entrance” and conduct a nuclear weapons check to reassert its regional place.
Others urge warning. “Iran can not do a lot within the area for now,” mentioned Laylaz. “Rebuilding Hizbollah and assessing the brand new Center Japanese order will take time. Till then, Iran should tread fastidiously.”
Cartography by Cleve Jones and Steven Bernard
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